November 19, 2021

Poll Contact: Tatishe Nteta

Bakers expands lead in potential gubernatorial matchup with Healy, according to new UMass Amherst / WCVB Poll

The Massachusetts attorney general appears to be the only serious general election threat to a third term for Baker, should he choose to run again in 2022

Find the full press release here and visualizations of approval ratings below.

YouGov interviewed 773 respondents in Massachusetts who were then matched down to a sample of 750 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, and years of education. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2016 and 2020 Presidential vote choice, and a four-way stratification of gender, age (4- categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

Field Dates: November 9 – November 16, 2021 | Sample: 750 Residents of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts | Margin of Error: 4.3% for All Registered Voters