January 12, 2023

Poll contact: Tatishe Nteta  

New National UMass Amherst Poll Finds Ron DeSantis Neck-and-Neck with Donald Trump in Republican 2024 Presidential Matchup

The Florida governor has gained ground on the former president to pull into a dead heat among Republicans in new national poll

Find the full press release posted below and at the UMass Amherst Office of News & Media Relations.

YouGov interviewed 1051 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of US

adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 Presidential vote choice, and then post stratified on the variables: gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

Field Dates: January  5 – January 9, 2023  |  Sample: 1,000 Respondents  |  Margin of Error: 3.55%