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Polling the Public

UMass Poll has gained national recognition for its innovative polling methods and high rate of accuracy. In this interview, Nteta provides insights into the goals and future direction of the program.

What is your role as director of UMass Poll?

UMass Poll has been in active operation since 2010 and in that time we have conducted close to twenty polls on elections, ballot questions, and the mood of the electorate in the Commonwealth, New Hampshire, and nationally.

My role as director is to take the lead in devising, designing, fielding, and analyzing and interpreting statewide, national, and international public opinion polls.

We have gained recognition for the accuracy and inventiveness of our polls and as the new director, I look forward to maintaining this momentum and continuing to build on our stellar reputation. I would also like to expand the reach and influence of the poll and continue to deliver high-quality and insightful polls to political leaders, the media, and the citizens of the Commonwealth, New England, and the nation.

Who benefits from UMass Poll results?

online voting graphic

Nteta will present UMass Poll results as part of a discussion about the midterm elections on November 19 at the UMass Club in Boston. Register today for The Midterms and a Political Pulse Check: A Thanksgiving-time Primer.

As the flagship university of the Commonwealth, our mission is to serve the residents of our state. As such, UMass Poll seeks to provide an accurate snapshot of the attitudes, beliefs, and vote intentions of Massachusetts residents to better understand the political health and wellbeing of the Commonwealth. 

In addition, we aim to serve the political leaders within the state by providing findings to help them craft policies that address the desires of their constituents and to make decisions that are in the best interest of the continued vitality of the Commonwealth today and in the future.

More specifically, we have worked most prominently with WBZ radio and television in Boston, The Boston Globe, and various colleges and departments at UMass Amherst.

The results from our surveys were also covered in TheWashington Post, MSNBC, Vox, and tweeted by then candidate Donald Trump.

What determines the content of polls?

In line with the goals of UMass Poll, as well as the desires of our media partners, the majority of our polls are fielded before statewide or federal elections (midterm, presidential, and special) to explore public opinion and assess the civic health of the Commonwealth, New England, and the nation.

However, we have polled during special elections in the state, in the aftermath of important events such as the Boston Marathon bombing, and in response to the requests of our media partners such as The Boston Globe.

In tandem with an undergraduate course on public opinion, we have also conducted exit polls to help predict and explain the outcome of statewide elections. We hope to continue to incorporate undergraduates in our research efforts.

How does UMass Poll partner with the data analytics firm YouGov?

Since the inception of UMass Poll, we have worked with YouGov to field our surveys.

YouGov is a leading online polling firm that has conducted surveys for a variety of clients including The Economist, CBS News, and for the Cooperative Congressional Election Study. YouGov uses cutting-edge statistical techniques to conduct online surveys and produce representative samples of the target population.

How accurate are UMass Poll results?

In the 2012 Massachusetts Senate election, the final UMass Poll (released in early October), showed Elizabeth Warren up 48% to 45% against Scott Brown. While she ultimately won by 8 points, by comparison the final UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll (conducted by phone) showed Brown up by 1 point.

In the 2013 Massachusetts Senate campaign, our final poll conducted showed Ed Markey ahead by 11 points; he ultimately won by a margin of 10 points.

In 2016, our final poll in Massachusetts showed that 54% of the public supported the legalization of marijuana; 53.6% of the public supported this question on Election Day.

To what do you attribute this high rate of accuracy?

The accuracy of UMass Poll results is a reflection of our careful question wording, our emphasis on polling registered voters, and the quality of services provided by YouGov.

In 2012, YouGov was rated by Nate Silver of The New York Times and Fivethirtyeight.com as one of the most accurate pollsters, with an error rate of just 2.6% (smaller than those registered by well-known firms such as The Washington Post /ABC News, and Gallup).

More recently, Silver ranked YouGov in the top ten of pollsters to trust in 2018 above firms such as Quinnipiac University, CNN, UNH, and Rasmussen among others.

What polls were conducted for the midterm elections?

We conducted a post-election study fielded from November 7 to November 9, 2018. We asked respondents questions about their vote choices (both in the 2018 midterms and the 2018 national elections), their approval of and impressions of candidates from Massachusetts, their vote choices on MA ballot initiatives, and a host of other policy-based questions with important state and national implications.

We also conducted a number of theoretical questions about their future vote choices and questions about societal phenomena (hostile sexism, racism) and will explore the impact these attitudes had on their vote choices and policy preferences.

What are future plans for UMass Poll?

In addition to providing innovative polls that assess the civic health and vitality of Massachusetts, we hope to become the leading pollster for the New England region.

We also hope to field international polls in Western Europe, India, and South Africa that explore not only issues of import in these countries but also their perceptions of the United States in the Trump administration.

Our long-term plan is to continue to build on our reputation as one of the best university survey organizations in the country alongside Quinnipiac and Marist, and to garner significant positive attention for the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

More about Tatishe M. Nteta:

Nteta’s research focuses on race and ethnic politics, political socialization, public opinion, and political campaigns. He has published scholarly articles in Political Research Quarterly, Political Psychology, Political Behavior, Public Opinion Quarterly, and Political Communication and his work has been featured in The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, NPR, Vox, and the Huffington Post.

Connect with Tatishe Nteta and UMass Poll at poll@polsci.umass.edu.

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