University of Massachusetts Amherst

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Toplines and Crosstabs Oct 2023: 2024 Election

October 25, 2023

Poll contact: Tatishe Nteta  

New UMass Amherst / WCVB Poll finds an independent Kennedy candidacy pulls more voters from Trump than Biden in 2024 

Statewide survey also finds strong support for potential ballot initiatives and election reforms, high approval for Sen. Elizabeth Warren as she seeks a third term

Find the full press release at the UMass Amherst Office of News & Media Relations.

YouGov interviewed 788 respondents from Massachusetts who were then matched down to a sample of 700 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and home ownership status (own, rent,other). The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post- stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice, home ownership status (3-categories), a two-way stratification of age (4-categories)and race (4- categories), as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age(4-categories), race (4- categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

Field Dates: October 13, 2023 – October 20, 2023 | Sample: 700 Respondents | Margin of Error: 5.1%

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